39 The imf predicted the Greek economy to contract.5 by 2014. Harsh austerity measures led to an actual contraction after six years of recession. 57 Some economic mba experts argue that the best option for Greece, and the rest of the eu, would be to engineer an "orderly default allowing Athens to withdraw simultaneously from the eurozone and reintroduce its national currency the drachma at a debased rate. 58 59 If Greece were to leave the euro, the economic and political consequences would be devastating. According to japanese financial company nomura an exit would lead to a 60 devaluation of the new drachma. Analysts at French bank bnp paribas added that the fallout from a greek exit would wipe 20 off Greece's gdp, increase Greece's debt-to-gdp ratio to over 200, and send inflation soaring to 4050. 60 Also ubs warned of hyperinflation, a bank run and even " military coups and possible civil war that could afflict a departing country".
34 36 On 10 november 2011, papandreou resigned following an agreement with the new Democracy party and the popular Orthodox Rally to appoint non-mp technocrat Lucas Papademos as new prime minister of an interim national union government, with responsibility for implementing the needed austerity measures. 37 38 All the implemented austerity measures have helped Greece bring down its primary deficit —i. E., fiscal deficit before interest payments—from.7bn (10.6 of gdp) in 2009 to just.2bn (2.4 of gdp) in 2011, 39 40 but as a side-effect they also contributed to a worsening of the Greek recession, which began in October 2008 and only became worse. 45 46 As a result, Greeks have lost about 40 of their purchasing power since the start of the crisis, 47 they spend 40 less on goods and services, 48 and the seasonal adjusted unemployment rate grew from.5 in September pdf 2008 to a record. 50 51 youth unemployment ratio hit.1 per cent in 2012. Overall the share of the population living at "risk of poverty or social exclusion" did not increase notably during the first two years of the crisis. The figure was measured.6 in 2009 and.7 in 2010 (only being slightly worse than the eu27-average.4 the figure was now estimated to have risen sharply above. In February 2012, an imf official negotiating Greek austerity measures admitted that excessive spending cuts were harming Greece.
By april 2010 it was apparent that the country was becoming unable to borrow from the markets; on, the Greek government requested an initial loan of 45 billion from the eu and International Monetary fund (imf to cover its financial needs for the remaining part. 27 A few days later Standard poor's slashed Greece's sovereign debt rating to bb or " junk " status amid fears of default, 28 in which case investors were liable to lose 3050 of their money. 28 Stock markets worldwide and the euro currency declined in response to the downgrade. 29 On, the Greek government announced a series of austerity measures (the Third austerity package within months) 30 to secure a three-year 110 billion loan ( First Economic Adjustment Programme ). 31 This was met with great anger by some Greeks, leading to massive protests, riots, and social unrest throughout Greece. The Troika, a tripartite committee formed by the european Commission, the european Central Bank and the International Monetary fund (ec, ecb and imf offered Greece a second bailout loan worth 130 billion in October 2011 ( Second Economic Adjustment Programme but with the activation being. 33 Surprisingly, the Greek prime minister george papandreou first answered that call by announcing a december 2011 referendum on the new bailout plan, 34 35 but had to back down amidst strong pressure from eu partners, who threatened to withhold an overdue 6 billion loan.
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In mid-2012, due to successful fiscal consolidation and essay implementation of structural reforms in the countries being most at risk and various policy measures taken by eu leaders and the ecb (see below financial stability in the eurozone has improved significantly and interest rates have steadily. This has also greatly diminished contagion risk for other eurozone countries. As of October 2012 only 3 out of 17 eurozone countries, namely Greece, portugal, and Cyprus still battled with long-term interest rates above. 22 by early january 2013, successful sovereign debt auctions across the eurozone but most importantly in Ireland, Spain, and Portugal, shows investors believe the ecb-backstop has worked. 23 In november 2013 ecb lowered its bank rate to only.25 to aid recovery in the eurozone.
24 As of may 2014 only two countries (Greece and Cyprus) still need help from third parties. 25 Greece edit main article: Greek government-debt crisis Debt of Greece compared to eurozone average since 1999 100,000 people protest against austerity measures in front of parliament building in Athens, in the early to mid-2000s, Greece's economy was one of the fastest growing in the. 26 As the world economy was hit by the financial crisis of 200708, greece was hit especially hard because its main industries— essay shipping and tourism —were especially sensitive to changes in the business cycle. The government spent heavily to keep the economy functioning and the country's debt increased accordingly. Despite the drastic upwards revision of the forecast for the 2009 budget deficit in October 2009, Greek borrowing rates initially rose rather slowly.
Four eurozone states had to be rescued by sovereign bailout programs, which were provided jointly by the International Monetary fund and the european Commission, with additional support at the technical level from the european Central Bank. Together these three international organisations representing the bailout creditors became nicknamed "the Troika ". To fight the crisis some governments have focused on raising taxes and lowering expenditures, which contributed to social unrest and significant debate among economists, many of whom advocate greater deficits when economies are struggling. Especially in countries where budget deficits and sovereign debts have increased sharply, a crisis of confidence has emerged with the widening of bond yield spreads and risk insurance on cds between these countries and other eu member states, most importantly germany. 16 by the end of 2011, germany was estimated to have made more than 9 billion out of the crisis as investors flocked to safer but near zero interest rate german federal government bonds ( bunds ). Lso the netherlands, austria, and Finland benefited from zero or negative interest rates.
Looking at short-term government bonds with a maturity of less than one year the list of beneficiaries also includes Belgium and France. 18 While Switzerland (and Denmark) 18 equally benefited from lower interest rates, the crisis also harmed its export sector due to a substantial influx of foreign capital and the resulting rise of the Swiss franc. In September 2011 the Swiss National Bank surprised currency traders by pledging that "it will no longer tolerate a euro-franc exchange rate below the minimum rate.20 francs effectively weakening the Swiss franc. This is the biggest Swiss intervention since 1978. 19 Despite sovereign debt having risen substantially in only a few eurozone countries, with the three most affected countries Greece, ireland and Portugal collectively only accounting for 6 of the eurozone's gross domestic product (gdp 20 it has become a perceived problem for the area. In total, the debt crisis forced five out of 17 eurozone countries to seek help from other nations by the end of 2012.
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When, as a negative repercussion of the Great Recession, the relatively fragile banking sector had suffered large capital losses, most states in Europe had to bail out several of their most affected banks with some supporting recapitalization loans, because of the strong linkage between their. As of January 2009, a group of 10 central and eastern European banks had already asked for a bailout. 13 At the time, the european Commission released a forecast of.8 decline in eu economic output for 2009, making the outlook for the banks even worse. 13 14 The many public funded bank recapitalizations were one reason behind the sharply deteriorated debt-to-gdp ratios experienced by several European governments in the wake of the Great Recession. The main root causes for the four sovereign debt crises erupting in Europe were reportedly a mix of: weak actual and potential growth ; competitive weakness ; liquidation of banks and sovereigns; large pre-existing debt-to-gdp ratios; and considerable liability stocks (government, private, and non-private sector). 15 In the first few weeks of 2010, there was renewed anxiety about excessive national essay debt, with lenders demanding ever-higher interest rates from several countries with higher debt levels, deficits, and current account deficits. This in turn made it difficult for four out of eighteen Eurozone governments to finance further budget deficits and repay or refinance existing government debt, particularly when economic growth rates were low, and when a high percentage of debt was in the hands of foreign. The states that were adversely affected by the crisis faced a strong rise in interest rate spreads for government bonds as a result of investor concerns about their future debt sustainability.
Large upwards revision of budget deficit forecasts due to the international financial crisis were not limited to Greece: for example, in the United States forecast for the 2009 budget deficit was raised from 407 billion projected in the 2009 fiscal year budget,.4 trillion. 12 In Greece, the low 68 forecast was reported until very late in the year (September 2009 clearly not corresponding to the actual situation. The fact that the Greek debt exceeded 400 billion (over 120 of gdp) and France owned 10 of that debt, made investors scared at the mention of the word "default". Although market reaction was rather slow—Greek 10-year government bond yield only exceeded 7 in April 2010—they coincided with a large number of negative articles, leading to arguments about the role of international news media and other actors fuelling the crisis. Evolution of the crisis edit see also: 2000s European sovereign debt crisis timeline and European debt crisis contagion The 2009 annual budget deficit and public debt both relative to gdp, for selected European countries. In the eurozone, the following number of countries were: sgp-limit compliant (3 Unhealthy (1 Critical (12 and Unsustainable (1). The 2012 annual budget deficit and public debt both relative to gdp, for all countries and. In the eurozone, the following number of countries were: sgp-limit compliant (3 Unhealthy (5 Critical (8 and Unsustainable (1). Debt profile of eurozone countries Change in national debt and deficit levels since 1980 The european debt crisis erupted in the wake of the Great Recession around late 2009, and was characterized by an environment of overly high government structural deficits and accelerating branding debt levels.
and Spain reaching 27, 9 and was blamed for subdued economic growth, not only for the entire eurozone, but for the entire european Union. As such, it can be argued to have had a major political impact on the ruling governments in 10 out of 19 eurozone countries, contributing to power shifts in Greece, ireland, France, italy, portugal, Spain, Slovenia, slovakia, belgium and the netherlands, as well as outside. Contents main article: causes of the european debt crisis Total (gross) government debt around the world as a percent of gdp by imf (2012) The eurozone crisis resulted from the structural problem of the eurozone and a combination of complex factors, including the globalisation. In 1992, members of the european Union signed the maastricht Treaty, under which they pledged to limit their deficit spending and debt levels. However, in the early 2000s, some eu member states were failing to stay within the confines of the maastricht criteria and turned to securitising future government revenues to reduce their debts and/or deficits, sidestepping best practice and ignoring international standards. 10 This allowed the sovereigns to mask their deficit and debt levels through a combination of techniques, including inconsistent accounting, off-balance-sheet transactions, and the use of complex currency and credit derivatives structures. 10 From late 2009 on, after Greece's newly elected, pasok government stopped masking its true indebtedness and budget deficit, fears of sovereign defaults in certain European states developed in the public, and the government debt of several states was downgraded. The crisis subsequently spread to Ireland and Portugal, while raising concerns about Italy, spain, and the european banking system, and more fundamental imbalances within the eurozone. 11 The under-reporting was exposed through a revision of the forecast for the 2009 budget deficit from "68" of gdp (no greater than 3 of gdp was a rule of the maastricht Treaty ).7, almost immediately after pasok won the October 2009 Greek.
The structure of the eurozone as a currency union (i.e., one currency) without fiscal union (e.g., different tax and public pension rules) contributed to the crisis and limited the ability of European leaders to respond. 3 4 European banks own a significant amount of sovereign debt, such that concerns regarding the solvency of banking systems or sovereigns are negatively reinforcing. 5 As concerns intensified in early 2010 and thereafter, 6 7 leading European nations implemented a series of financial support measures such as the european Financial Stability facility (efsf) and European Stability mechanism (ESM). The ecb also contributed to solve the crisis by lowering interest rates and providing cheap loans of more than one trillion euro in order to maintain money flows between European banks. On 6 September 2012, the ecb calmed financial markets by announcing free unlimited support for all eurozone countries involved in a sovereign state bailout/precautionary programme from efsf/esm, through some yield lowering Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT). 8 Return to economic growth and improved structural deficits enabled Ireland and Portugal to exit their bailout programmes in July 2014. Greece and Cyprus world both managed to partly regain market access in 2014. Spain never officially received a bailout programme.
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Long-term interest rates ( secondary market yields of government bonds with maturities of close to ten years) of all eurozone countries except. Estonia, latvia and, lithuania. 1, a yield being more than 4 points higher compared to the essay lowest comparable yield among the eurozone states,. Yields above 6 in September 2011, indicates that financial institutions have serious doubts about credit-worthiness of the state. 2, the, european debt crisis (often also referred to as the, eurozone crisis or the, european sovereign debt crisis ) is a multi-year debt crisis that has been taking place in the, european Union since the end of 2009. Several eurozone member states greece, portugal, ireland, spain and, cyprus ) were unable to repay or refinance their government debt or to bail out over-indebted banks under their national supervision without the assistance of third parties like other. Eurozone countries, the, european Central Bank (ecb or the, international Monetary fund (IMF). The detailed causes of the debt crisis varied. In several countries, private debts arising from a property bubble were transferred to sovereign debt as a result of banking system bailouts and government responses to slowing economies post-bubble.